Accepted Papers

Bond Premium Cyclicality and Liquidity Traps

4 January 2023

Nicolas Caramp and Sanjay R. Singh

Safe asset shortages can expose an economy to liquidity traps. The nature of these traps is determined by the cyclicality of the bond premium. A counter-cyclical bond premium opens the possibility of expectations-driven liquidity traps in which small issuances of government debt crowd out private debt and reduce output.

Testing the Production Approach to Markup Estimation

4 January 2023

Devesh Raval

Under the production approach to markup estimation, any flexible input should recover the markup. I test this implication using manufacturing datasets from Chile, Colombia, India, Indonesia, the US, and Southern Europe, as well as store-level data from a major US retailer, and overwhelmingly reject that markups estimated using labor and materials have the same distribution.

A Welfare Analysis of Occupational Licensing in U.S. States

21 December 2022

Morris M. Kleiner and Evan J. Soltas

We assess the welfare consequences of occupational licensing for workers and consumers. We estimate a model of labor market equilibrium in which licensing restricts labor supply but also affects labor demand via worker quality and selection.

A Network Solution to Robust Implementation: the Case of Identical but Unknown Distributions

19 December 2022

Mariann Ollár and Antonio Penta

We study robust mechanism design in environments in which agents commonly believe that others’ types are identically distributed, but we do not assume that the actual distribution is common knowledge, nor that it is known to the designer.

More than a Penny’s Worth: Left-Digit Bias and Firm Pricing

13 December 2022

Avner Strulov-Shlain, University of Chicago, Booth School of Business

Firms arguably price at 99-ending prices because of left-digit bias—the tendency of consumers to perceive a $4.99 as much lower than a $5.00. Analysis of retail scanner data on 3500 products sold by 25 US chains provides robust support for this explanation.

Unemployment Insurance in Macroeconomic Stabilization

12 December 2022

Rohan Kekre, Chicago Booth and NBER

I study unemployment insurance (UI) in general equilibrium with incomplete markets, search frictions, and nominal rigidities.

Stratification Trees for Adaptive Randomization in Randomized Controlled Trials

12 December 2022

Max Tabord-Meehan, University of Chicago

This paper proposes an adaptive randomization procedure for two-stage randomized controlled trials. The method uses data from a first-wave experiment in order to determine how to stratify in a second wave of the experiment, where the objective is to minimize the variance of an estimator for the average treatment effect (ATE).

Save, Spend or Give? A Model of Housing, Family Insurance, and Savings in Old Age

12 December 2022

Daniel Barczyk, Sean Fahle, and Matthias Kredler

How do housing and family shape the savings, spending, and inter-generational transfer behavior of the elderly?

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A new paper by @THEdanjlewis & Mertens makes the Stock-Yogo test for weak instruments with multiple HAC robust endogenous regressors, propose tests for bias in a single coefficients, and extend to test general rank deficiency in the first stage

https://www.restud.com/a-robust-test-for-weak-instruments-for-2sls-with-multiple-endogenous-regressors/

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New paper by @pilossopher, @davide_melc & Lewis estimates the distribution of spending responses to stimulus payments. MPCs are heterogeneous, with observables explaining 8% of the variation, highlighting the crucial role of latent heterogeneity

https://www.restud.com/latent-heterogeneity-in-the-marginal-propensity-to-consume/
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New paper, "Firm Quality Dynamics and the Slippery Slope of Credit Intervention" by @wenhaoli111 & Li shows that direct government and central bank lending can distort firm quality and fuel future interventions.

https://www.restud.com/firm-quality-dynamics-and-the-slippery-slope-of-credit-intervention/

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"We show how opportunity costs, a core economic concept, can explain seemingly non-rational behaviour (like cyclical choices) within a preference-maximising framework."

New paper by @PaolaManzini, @MarcoMa75263273 & @ulkulev

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https://www.restud.com/choice-and-opportunity-costs/

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Bond Premium Cyclicality and Liquidity Traps

Testing the Production Approach to Markup Estimation

A Welfare Analysis of Occupational Licensing in U.S. States

A Network Solution to Robust Implementation: the Case of Identical but Unknown Distributions

More than a Penny’s Worth: Left-Digit Bias and Firm Pricing

Unemployment Insurance in Macroeconomic Stabilization

Stratification Trees for Adaptive Randomization in Randomized Controlled Trials

Save, Spend or Give? A Model of Housing, Family Insurance, and Savings in Old Age

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