Accepted Papers

The Size and Life-cycle Growth of Plants: The Role of Productivity, Demand and Wedges

19 February 2023

Marcela Eslava, John Haltiwanger, and Nicolas Urdaneta

What determines the distribution of establishments in terms of size and life-cycle growth? How are those determinants related to aggregate productivity?

Salience and Taxation with Imperfect Competition

19 February 2023

Kory Kroft, Jean-William P. Laliberté, René Lael-Vizcaíno, and Matthew J. Notowidigdo

This paper studies commodity taxation in a model featuring heterogeneous consumers, imperfect competition, and tax salience. We derive new formulas for the incidence and marginal excess burden of commodity taxation highlighting interactions between tax salience and market structure.

Credit Access, Selection, and Incentives in a Market for Asset Collateralized Loans: Evidence from Kenya

16 February 2023

William Jack, Michael Kremer, Joost de Laat, and Tavneet Suri

We study the potential for asset collateralization to expand access to credit in rural Kenya. Increasing the share of a loan for a durable agricultural asset that is collateralized by the physical asset itself (from zero to 96%) while reducing the share backed by financial assets increases loan take-up considerably, with only a very limited impact on repayment behavior and the lender’s profitability.

Diagnostic Business Cycles

14 February 2023

Francesco Bianchi, Cosmin Ilut, and Hikaru Saijo

A large psychology literature argues that, due to selective memory recall, decision-makers’ forecasts of the future are overly influenced by the perceived news.

A Macro-Finance Model with Sentiment

14 February 2023

Peter Maxted

This paper incorporates diagnostic expectations into a general equilibrium macroeconomic model with a financial intermediary sector. Diagnostic expectations are a forward-looking model of extrapolative expectations that overreact to recent news.

International Spillovers and Bailouts

14 February 2023

Marina Azzimonti and Vincenzo Quadrini

We study how cross-country macroeconomic spillovers caused by sovereign default affect equilibrium bailouts.

Human Capital, Female Employment, and Electricity: Evidence from the Early 20th-Century United States

12 February 2023

Daniela Vidart

This paper revisits the link between electrification and the rise in female labor force participation (LFP), and presents theoretical and empirical evidence showing that electrification triggered a rise in female LFP by increasing market opportunities for skilled women.

The Cost of Wage Rigidity

12 February 2023

Ester Faia and Vincenzo Pezone

Private efficiency of wage rigidity has taken center stage in economics. Measuring its effects has proven elusive for lack of actual wage data.

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Manager pay and pay inequality have increased substantially since the 1980s. Manager pay reflect that managers increase the firm’s productivity which in turn affects market power.

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Uniform asymptotic theory for local projections with unknown/infinite lag order. LPs can achieve semiparametric efficiency and support robust IRF inference.

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Monopsony power makes productive firms decide to stay small, hurting aggregate productivity. More strongly size-dependent wages in East Germany explain a third of the difference to the West.

New paper by @BachmannRudi, @christianbaye13, Stüber, and Wellschmied

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The Size and Life-cycle Growth of Plants: The Role of Productivity, Demand and Wedges

Salience and Taxation with Imperfect Competition

Credit Access, Selection, and Incentives in a Market for Asset Collateralized Loans: Evidence from Kenya

Diagnostic Business Cycles

A Macro-Finance Model with Sentiment

International Spillovers and Bailouts

Human Capital, Female Employment, and Electricity: Evidence from the Early 20th-Century United States

The Cost of Wage Rigidity

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