Accepted Papers

Hinterlands, city formation and growth: Evidence from the U.S. westward expansion

24 January 2023

Dávid Krisztián Nagy

I study how geography shaped city formation and aggregate development in the United States prior to the Civil War. To guide my analysis, I present a conjecture that cities’ farm hinterlands fostered both city development and aggregate growth: the hinterland hypothesis.

Estimating Production Functions of Multiproduct Firms

22 January 2023

Nelli Valmari

Multiproduct firms constitute a considerable share of firms and account for an even greater share of production. Nevertheless, the vast majority of production function estimates are based on the assumption that firms are single-product manufacturers.

Inference for Ranks with Applications to Mobility across Neighborhoods and Academic Achievement across Countries

22 January 2023

Magne Mogstad, Joseph P. Romano, Azeem M. Shaikh, and Daniel Wilhelm

It is often desired to rank different populations according to the value of some feature of each population. For example, it may be desired to rank neighborhoods according to some measure of intergenerational mobility or countries according to some measure of academic achievement. These rankings are invariably computed using estimates rather than the true values of these features.

Inference for Linear Conditional Moment Inequalities

13 January 2023

Isaiah Andrews, Jonathan Roth, and Ariel Pakes

We show that moment inequalities in a wide variety of economic applications have a particular linear conditional structure.

Retraction of: Growing up in a Recession

11 January 2023

This is a retraction of: Paola Giuliano, Antonio Spilimbergo, Growing up in a Recession, The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 81, Issue 2, April 2014, Pages 787–817.

Social Positions and Fairness Views on Inequality

5 January 2023

Kristoffer B. Hvidberg, Claus T. Kreiner, and Stefanie Stantcheva

We link survey data on Danish people’s perceived income positions and fairness views on inequality within various reference groups to administrative records on their reference groups, income histories, and life events. People are, on average, well-informed about the income levels of their reference groups.

A More Credible Approach to Parallel Trends

5 January 2023

Ashesh Rambachan and Jonathan Roth

This paper proposes tools for robust inference in difference-in-differences and event- study designs where the parallel trends assumption may be violated.

Bond Premium Cyclicality and Liquidity Traps

4 January 2023

Nicolas Caramp and Sanjay R. Singh

Safe asset shortages can expose an economy to liquidity traps. The nature of these traps is determined by the cyclicality of the bond premium. A counter-cyclical bond premium opens the possibility of expectations-driven liquidity traps in which small issuances of government debt crowd out private debt and reduce output.