Accepted Papers

Diagnostic Business Cycles

14 February 2023

Francesco Bianchi, Cosmin Ilut, and Hikaru Saijo

A large psychology literature argues that, due to selective memory recall, decision-makers’ forecasts of the future are overly influenced by the perceived news.

A Macro-Finance Model with Sentiment

14 February 2023

Peter Maxted

This paper incorporates diagnostic expectations into a general equilibrium macroeconomic model with a financial intermediary sector. Diagnostic expectations are a forward-looking model of extrapolative expectations that overreact to recent news.

International Spillovers and Bailouts

14 February 2023

Marina Azzimonti and Vincenzo Quadrini

We study how cross-country macroeconomic spillovers caused by sovereign default affect equilibrium bailouts.

Human Capital, Female Employment, and Electricity: Evidence from the Early 20th-Century United States

12 February 2023

Daniela Vidart

This paper revisits the link between electrification and the rise in female labor force participation (LFP), and presents theoretical and empirical evidence showing that electrification triggered a rise in female LFP by increasing market opportunities for skilled women.

The Cost of Wage Rigidity

12 February 2023

Ester Faia and Vincenzo Pezone

Private efficiency of wage rigidity has taken center stage in economics. Measuring its effects has proven elusive for lack of actual wage data.

Dynamic Asset-Backed Security Design

12 February 2023

Emre Ozdenoren, Kathy Yuan, and Shengxing Zhang

Borrowers obtain liquidity by issuing securities backed by the current period payoff and resale price of a long-lived collateral asset, and they are privately informed about the payoff distribution.

A Theory of Falling Growth and Rising Rents

9 February 2023

Philippe Aghion, Antonin Bergeaud, Timo Boppart, Peter J. Klenow, and Huiyu Li

Growth has fallen in the U.S. amid a rise in firm concentration. Market share has shifted to low labor share firms, while within-firm labor shares have actually risen.

Risk Classification in Insurance Markets with Risk and Preference Heterogeneity

9 February 2023

Vitor Farinha Luz, Piero Gottardi, and Humberto Moreira

This paper studies a competitive model of insurance markets in which consumers are privately informed about their risk and risk preferences. We provide a characterization of the equilibria, which depend non-trivially on consumers’ type distribution, a desirable feature for policy analysis.

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New paper, "Firm Quality Dynamics and the Slippery Slope of Credit Intervention" by @wenhaoli111 & Li shows that direct government and central bank lending can distort firm quality and fuel future interventions.

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"Serfdom in early modern Russia wasn’t inevitable—it was driven by landholding soldiers on the southern frontier. To defend against nomads, the state tied peasants to land, cementing coercive labor."

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Diagnostic Business Cycles

A Macro-Finance Model with Sentiment

International Spillovers and Bailouts

Human Capital, Female Employment, and Electricity: Evidence from the Early 20th-Century United States

The Cost of Wage Rigidity

Dynamic Asset-Backed Security Design

A Theory of Falling Growth and Rising Rents

Risk Classification in Insurance Markets with Risk and Preference Heterogeneity

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