Accepted Papers

Is the Social Safety Net a Long-Term Investment? Large-Scale Evidence from the Food Stamps Program

4 June 2023

Martha Bailey, Hilary Hoynes, Maya Rossin-Slater, and Reed Walker

We use novel, large-scale data on 17.5 million Americans to study how a policy-driven increase in economic resources affects children’s long-term outcomes. Using the 2000 Census and 2001-2013 American Community Survey linked to the Social Security Administration’s NUMIDENT, we leverage the county-level roll-out of the Food Stamps program between 1961 and 1975.

Resolving Failed Banks: Uncertainty, Multiple Bidding & Auction Design

4 June 2023

Jason Allen, Robert Clark, Brent Hickman, and Eric Richert

The FDIC resolves insolvent banks with scoring auctions. Although the structure of the scoring rule is known to bidders, they are uncertain about how the FDIC trades off different bid components. Scoring-rule uncertainty motivates bidders to submit multiple bids for the same failed bank.

The Slaughter of the Bison and Reversal of Fortunes on the Great Plains

24 May 2023

Donn. L. Feir, Rob Gillezeau, and Maggie E.C. Jones

In the late nineteenth century, the North American bison was brought to the brink of extinction in just over a decade. We demonstrate that the loss of the bison had immediate, negative consequences for the Native Americans who relied on them and ultimately resulted in a permanent reversal of fortunes. Once amongst the tallest people in the world, the generations of bison-reliant people born after the slaughter lost their entire height advantage.

The Effect of Wealth on Worker Productivity

24 May 2023

Jan Eeckhout and Alireza Sepahsalari

We propose a theory that analyzes how a workers’ asset holdings affect their job productivity. In a labor market with uninsurable risk, workers choose to direct their job search trading off productivity and wages against unemployment risk. Workers with low asset holdings have a precautionary job search motive, they direct their search to low productivity jobs because those offer a low risk at the cost of low productivity and a low wage.

Selfish Corporations

21 May 2023

Emanuele Colonnelli, Niels Joachim Gormsen, and Tim McQuade

We study how perceptions of corporate responsibility influence policy preferences and the effectiveness of corporate communication when agents have imperfect memory recall. Using a new large-scale survey of U.S. citizens on their support for corporate bailouts, we first establish that the public demands corporations to behave better within society, a sentiment we label “big business discontent.”

Deadly Debt Crises: COVID-19 in Emerging Markets

21 May 2023

Cristina Arellano, Yan Bai, and Gabriel Mihalache

Emerging markets have experienced large human and economic costs from COVID- 19, and their tight fiscal space has limited the support extended to their citizens. We study the impact of an epidemic on economic and health outcomes by integrating epidemiological dynamics into a sovereign default model.

Vacancy Durations and Entry Wages: Evidence from Linked Vacancy-Employer-Employee Data

3 May 2023

Andreas I. Mueller, Damian Osterwalder, Josef Zweimüller, and Andreas Kettemann

This paper explores the relationship between the duration of a vacancy and the starting wage of a new job, using linked data on vacancies, the posting establishments and the workers eventually filling the vacancies.

Bilateral Trade Imbalances

1 May 2023

Alejandro Cuñat and Robert Zymek

If sectoral trade flows obey structural gravity, countries’ bilateral trade imbalances are the result of macro trade imbalances, “triangular trade”, or pairwise asymmetric trade barriers. Using data for 40 major economies and the Rest of the World, we show that large and pervasive asymmetries in trade barriers are required to account for most of the observed variation in bilateral imbalances.

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New paper by Lee:

https://www.restud.com/identification-and-estimation-of-dynamic-random-coefficient-models/

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Manager pay and pay inequality have increased substantially since the 1980s. Manager pay reflect that managers increase the firm’s productivity which in turn affects market power.

New paper by @jan_eeckhout, Bao, and De Loecker

https://www.restud.com/manager-pay-inequality-and-market-power/

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Uniform asymptotic theory for local projections with unknown/infinite lag order. LPs can achieve semiparametric efficiency and support robust IRF inference.

New paper by Xu:

https://www.restud.com/local-projection-based-inference-under-general-conditions/

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Monopsony power makes productive firms decide to stay small, hurting aggregate productivity. More strongly size-dependent wages in East Germany explain a third of the difference to the West.

New paper by @BachmannRudi, @christianbaye13, Stüber, and Wellschmied

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