Accepted Papers

New

Destabilizing Capital Flows Amid Global Inflation

16 January 2026

Julien Bengui and Louphou Coulibaly

Over the latest monetary policy tightening cycle, capital has been flowing from low-inflation countries to high-inflation countries. This pattern of capital flows is consistent with the predictions of an open-economy model with nominal rigidities where cost-push shocks generate an inflationary episode and capital flows freely across countries.

New

The Illiquidity of Water Markets

11 January 2026

Javier D. Donna and José A. Espín-Sánchez

We investigate the efficiency of a market relative to a non-market institution—an auction relative to a quota—as allocation mechanisms in the presence of frictions. We use data from water markets in southeastern Spain and explore a specific change in the institutions to allocate water. On the one hand, frictions arose because poor farmers were liquidity constrained. On the other hand, farmers who were part of the wealthy elite were not liquidity constrained.

New

Patent Term, Innovation, and the Role of Technology Disclosure Externalities

11 January 2026

Fabio Bertolotti

I examine the impact of patent term on R&D and innovation in the presence of policy anticipation, common in real-world settings. Using a difference-in-difference design, I exploit quasi-experimental variation in U.S. patent term across technological fields due to the ratification of TRIPs agreements in 1995. Despite a general increase in average patent term, in most fields innovators faced a considerable probability of patent term reduction for future innovations.

New

Selection in Surveys: Using Randomized Incentives to Detect and Account for Nonresponse Bias

6 January 2026

Deniz Dutz, Ingrid Huitfeldt, Santiago Lacouture, Magne Mogstad, Alexander Torgovitsky, and Winnie van Dijk

We show how to use randomized participation incentives to test and account for nonresponse bias in surveys. We first use data from a survey about labor market conditions, linked to full-population administrative data, to provide evidence of large differences in labor market outcomes between survey participants and nonparticipants, differences which would not be observable to an analyst who only has access to the survey data.

New

Education and the Margins of Cyclical Adjustment in the Labor Market

5 January 2026

Cynthia L. Doniger

Allocative wages—the labor costs considered when deciding to form or dissolve a long-term employment relationship—are more sensitive to cyclical conditions for more educated workers. Specifically, college-educated workers’ allocative wages are highly pro-cyclical, while high school dropouts’ wages exhibit only moderate cyclicality.

New

The Macroeconomics of Irreversibility

5 January 2026

Isaac Baley and Julio Andrés Blanco

We study aggregate capital dynamics in an investment model with idiosyncratic productivity shocks, fixed capital adjustment costs, and irreversibility driven by a wedge between capital purchase and resale prices. We derive sufficient statistics that capture the role of investment frictions in aggregate capital fluctuations, measure these statistics using investment microdata, and exploit them to discipline the capital price wedge.

New

Bank Information Production Over the Business Cycle

18 December 2025

Cooper Howes and Gregory Weitzner

The information banks produce drives their lending decisions and macroeconomic outcomes, but this information is inherently difficult to analyze because it is private. We construct a novel measure of bank information quality from confidential regulatory data that include banks’ private risk assessments for US corporate loans.

New

Inflation risk and the finance-growth nexus

18 December 2025

Alexandre Corhay and Jincheng Tong

When firms finance using long-term nominal debt issued by financial intermediaries, changes in expected inflation lead to a wealth transfer across sectors. Higher expected inflation decreases firms’ real liabilities and default risk, which helps reduce debt overhang. However, it hurts intermediaries’ real assets, leading to a contraction in credit supply.

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New paper by Le Grand, Martin-Baillon & Ragot:

https://www.restud.com/should-monetary-policy-care-about-redistribution-optimal-monetary-and-fiscal-policy-with-heterogeneous-agents/

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New paper by Ashraf, Bakhtin, Field, Voena, & Ziparo:

https://www.restud.com/gendered-spheres-of-learning-and-household-decision-making-over-fertility/

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New paper by Christensen, Moon and Schorfheide:

https://restud.com/optimal-decision-rules-when-payoffs-are-partially-identified/
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New paper by Mahajan, Michel and Tarozzi:

https://www.restud.com/identification-of-time-inconsistent-models-the-case-of-insecticide-treated-nets/

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