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The Review of Economic Studies is one of the most highly respected academic journals in the field of economics. It is known for publishing leading research in all areas of economics, from microeconomics to macroeconomics. The journal is published by the Oxford University Press.

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New

Belief identification by proxy

9 April 2025

Elias Tsakas

It is well known that individual beliefs cannot be identified using traditional choice data, unless we exogenously assume state-independent utilities. In this paper, I propose a novel methodology that solves this long-standing identification problem in a simple way. This method relies on extending the state space by introducing a proxy, for which the agent has no stakes conditional on the original state space.

New

How People Use Statistics

2 April 2025

Pedro Bordalo, John Conlon, Nicola Gennaioli, Spencer Kwon, and Andrei Shleifer

For standard statistical problems, we provide new evidence documenting i) multi-modality and ii) instability in probability estimates, including from irrelevant changes in problem description. The evidence motivates a model in which, when solving a problem, people represent each hypothesis by attending to its salient features while neglecting other, potentially more relevant, ones. Only the statistics associated with salient features are used.

New

The US, Economic News, and the Global Financial Cycle

31 March 2025

Christoph E. Boehm and T. Niklas Kroner

We provide evidence for a causal link between the US economy and the global financial cycle. Using intraday data, we show that US macroeconomic news releases have large and significant effects on global risky asset prices. Stock price indexes of 27 countries, the VIX, and commodity prices all jump instantaneously upon news releases. The responses of stock indexes co-move across countries and are large—often comparable in size to the response of the S&P 500.

New

How to sample and when to stop sampling: The generalized Wald problem and minimax policies

31 March 2025

Karun Adusumilli

We study sequential experiments where sampling is costly and a decision-maker aims to determine the best treatment for full scale implementation by (1) adaptively allocating units between two possible treatments, and (2) stopping the experiment when the expected welfare (inclusive of sampling costs) from implementing the chosen treatment is maximized. Working under a continuous time limit, we characterize the optimal policies under the minimax regret criterion.

New

Unemployment insurance reforms and labor market dynamics

20 March 2025

Benjamin Hartung, Philip Jung, and Moritz Kuhn

A key question in labor market research is how the unemployment insurance system affects unemployment rates and labor market dynamics. We provide new answers to this old question by studying one of the largest unemployment insurance reforms in recent decades, the German Hartz reforms. On average, lower separation rates into unemployment account for 76% of declining unemployment after the reform, a fact unexplained by existing research focusing on job-finding rates.

New

‘Bad’ Oil, ‘Worse’ Oil and Carbon Misallocation

10 March 2025

Renaud Coulomb, Fanny Henriet, and Léo Reitzmann

Not all barrels of oil are created equal: their extraction varies in both private cost and carbon intensity. Leveraging a comprehensive micro-dataset on world oil fields, alongside detailed estimates of carbon intensities and private extraction costs, this study quantifies the additional emissions and costs from having extracted the ’wrong’ deposits. We do so by comparing historical deposit-level supplies to counterfactuals that factor in pollution costs, while keeping annual global consumption unchanged.

New

Global Value Chains and Trade Policy

3 March 2025

Emily J. Blanchard, Chad P. Bown, and Robert C. Johnson

How do global value chain (GVC) linkages modify countries’ incentives to impose import protection? Are these linkages important determinants of trade policy in practice? We develop a new approach to modeling tariff setting with GVCs, in which optimal policy depends on the nationality of value-added content embedded in home and foreign final goods.

New

Identification and Inference in First-Price Auctions with Risk Averse Bidders and Selective Entry

3 March 2025

Xiaohong Chen, Matthew Gentry, Tong Li, and Jingfeng Lu

We study identification and inference in first-price auctions with risk averse bidders and selective entry, building on a flexible framework we call the Affiliated Signal with Risk Aversion (AS-RA) model. Assuming exogenous variation in either the number of potential bidders (N) or a continuous instrument (z) shifting opportunity costs of entry, we provide a sharp characterization of the nonparametric restrictions implied by equilibrium bidding. This characterization implies that risk neutrality is nonparametrically testable.

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Recently accepted to #REStud, "Revisiting the Non-Parametric Analysis of Time-Inconsistent Preferences," from Echenique and Tserenjigmid:

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Sufficiently long-lived players can hardly sustain any cooperation, but players w/ intermediate lifespans can sustain some cooperation."

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Recently accepted to #REStud, "Behavioral Causal Inference," from Ran Spiegler:

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The Review of Economic Studies

The Review was founded in 1933 by a group of Economists from leading UK and US departments. It is now managed by European-based economists.

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