Accepted Papers

New

An Evaluation of Protected Area Policies in the European Union

17 July 2026

Tristan Grupp, Prakash Mishra, Mathias Reynaert, and Arthur A. van Benthem

The European Union designates 26% of its landmass as protected areas, limiting economic development for biodiversity. We use the staggered introduction of protected areas between 1985 and 2019 to study the selection of protected land and the causal effect of protection on vegetation cover and nightlights. We find no meaningful impacts on either outcome across four decades, countries, protection cohorts, or land characteristics.

New

Industrial clusters in the long run: Evidence from Million-Rouble plants in China

14 July 2026

Stephan Heblich, Marlon Seror, Hao Xu, and Yanos Zylberberg

We study the impact of large, successful manufacturing plants on other local producers in China, focusing on “Million-Rouble Plants” built in the 1950s during a brief alliance with the U.S.S.R. The ephemeral geopolitical situation and the locations of allied and enemy airbases provide exogenous variation in plant siting.

New

The Long Shadow of Housing Discrimination: Evidence from Racial Covenants

14 July 2026

Aradhya Sood and Kevin Ehrman-Solberg

Racial covenants in housing deeds were widely used in the United States during the early 20th century to segregate neighborhoods. In 1948, the Supreme Court decision in Shelley v. Kraemer made racial covenants unenforceable in court, stopping short of prohibiting them entirely. We surmise that even after losing their judicial enforceability, such covenants could have shaped segregation if they served as a focal point for coordination on an initial equilibrium in neighborhood formation, a context characterized by investment durability and path dependency.

New

A Model of the Data Economy

6 July 2026

Maryam Farboodi and Laura Veldkamp

In a data economy, transactions of goods and services generate data, which is stored, traded and depreciates. How are the economics of this economy different from traditional production economies? How do these differences matter for measurement of GDP, firm values, depreciation rates, welfare and externalities?

New

Structural Change in Production Networks and Economic Growth

6 July 2026

Paul Gaggl, Aspen Gorry, and Christian vom Lehn

We study structural change in production networks for intermediate inputs (input-output network) and new capital (investment network). For each network, we document that the share of output produced by services (relative to goods) is rising over time. While the relative prices of services that produce intermediates and consumption are rising, we find that the relative price of services that produce investment is falling over time.

New

The Selective Disclosure of Evidence: An Experiment

3 July 2026

Agata Farina, Guillaume Fréchette, Alessandro Ispano, Alessandro Lizzeri, and Jacopo Perego

We conduct an experimental analysis of selective disclosure in communication. In the model, an informed sender aims to influence a receiver by disclosing verifiable evidence that is selected from a larger pool of available evidence. Our experimental design leverages this model’s rich comparative statics, allowing us to systematically quantify the effects of selection relative to concealment.

New

Smooth Diagnostic Expectations

3 July 2026

Francesco Bianchi, Cosmin Ilut, Hikaru Saijo

We show that the formalization of representativeness (Kahneman and Tversky (1972)) developed by Gennaioli and Shleifer (2010) features an intrinsic connection between uncertainty and overreaction. In the time series domain, we develop this connection in a smooth version of Diagnostic Expectations (DE), where overreaction varies smoothly with uncertainty.

New

When is Separate Sales Optimal?

1 July 2026

Changhyun Kwak

This paper studies a multi-product monopolist facing a privately informed consumer with additive and type-increasing valuations. Separate monopoly pricing is robustly optimal with respect to the type distribution if and only if the marginal rate of substitution between each pair of goods is monotone.

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Under Smooth Diagnostic Expectations overreaction increases smoothly with uncertainty, providing a micro-foundation for key properties of survey data and the business cycle.

New paper by @Francesco_Bia, @CosminIlut, and @hpfilter

https://www.restud.com/smooth-diagnostic-expectations/

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New paper by Kwak

https://www.restud.com/when-is-separate-sales-optimal/

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New paper by Kaila:

https://www.restud.com/how-do-people-react-to-income-based-fines-evidence-from-speeding-tickets-discontinuities/

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The UK’s post-1963 Robbins Report university boom brought in less able students from advantaged backgrounds. Future expansions should target talented students facing socioeconomic barriers.

New paper by Ichino, Rustichini, and @giulio_zanella:

https://www.restud.com/college-cognitive-ability-and-socioeconomic-disadvantage-policy-lessons-from-the-uk-in-1960-2004/

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