Accepted Papers

New

Should monetary policy care about redistribution? Optimal monetary and fiscal policy with heterogeneous agents

6 March 2026

François Le Grand, Alaïs Martin-Baillon, and Xavier Ragot

We present a method to determine optimal monetary policy in heterogeneous-agent economies with nominal frictions and aggregate shocks, under various assumptions regarding fiscal policy. We analyze models with either sticky prices or sticky wages. In the sticky-price economy, when fiscal policy is optimally set, optimal monetary policy implements price stability.

New

Gendered Spheres of Learning and Household Decision-Making over Fertility

6 March 2026

Nava Ashraf, Maxim Bakhtin, Erica Field, Alessandra Voena, and Roberta Ziparo

While men and women make joint decisions about fertility, women give birth and are more likely to learn about a significant cost of childbearing—maternal health risk. Within couples in Zambia, men have systematically lower awareness of maternal risk factors and higher desire for children than their wives. We develop a model in which information asymmetries between partners over maternal health risk can persist in equilibrium due to strategic incentives and can generate disagreement over fertility that cannot be resolved with transfers.

New

Optimal Decision Rules when Payoffs are Partially Identified

20 February 2026

Timothy Christensen, Hyungsik Roger Moon, and Frank Schorfheide

We derive asymptotically optimal statistical decision rules for discrete choice problems when payoffs depend on a partially-identified parameter θ and the decision maker can use a point-identified parameter µ to deduce restrictions on θ. Examples include treatment choice under partial identification and pricing with rich unobserved heterogeneity.

New

Identification Of Time-Inconsistent Models: The Case Of Insecticide Treated Nets

20 February 2026

Aprajit Mahajan, Christian Michel, and Alessandro Tarozzi

Time-inconsistency may play a central role in explaining inter-temporal behavior, particularly among poor households. However, little is known about the distribution of time-inconsistent agents, and time-preference parameters are typically not identified in standard dynamic choice models. We formulate a dynamic discrete choice model in an unobservedly heterogeneous population of possibly time-inconsistent agents.

New

Coarse Bayesian Updating

13 February 2026

Alexander M. Jakobsen

Studies have shown that the standard law of belief updating—Bayes’ rule—is descriptively invalid in various settings. In this paper, I introduce and analyze a generalization of Bayes’ rule—Coarse Bayesian updating—accommodating much of the empirical evidence. I characterize the model axiomatically, show how it generates several well-known biases, and derive its main implications in static and dynamic settings.

New

Decision Theory for Treatment Choice Problems with Partial Identification

9 February 2026

José Luis Montiel Olea, Chen Qiu, and Jörg Stoye

We apply classical statistical decision theory to a large class of treatment choice problems with partial identification. We show that, in a general class of problems with Gaussian likelihood, all decision rules are admissible; it is maximin-welfare optimal to ignore all data; and, for severe enough partial identification, there are infinitely many minimax-regret optimal decision rules, all of which sometimes randomize the policy recommendation.

New

Narratives about the Macroeconomy

9 February 2026

Peter Andre, Ingar Haaland, Christopher Roth, Mirko Wiederholt, and Johannes Wohlfart

We study narratives about the macroeconomy—the stories people tell to explain macroeconomic phenomena—in the context of a historic surge in inflation. In our empirical analysis, we field surveys with more than 10,000 US households and 100 academic experts, measure economic narratives in open-ended questions, and represent them as Directed Acyclic Graphs.

New

Dynamic Regulation with Firm Linkages: Evidence from Texas

26 January 2026

Matthew Leisten and Nicholas Vreugdenhil

We evaluate the efficiency of dynamic linked environmental regulation. Linked regulation allows inspectors who uncover violations at one plant to increase future enforcement at other plants that share a common owner. When compliance costs are correlated, regulators can then target scarce enforcement resources towards bad actors without inspecting everyone.

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New paper by Le Grand, Martin-Baillon & Ragot:

https://www.restud.com/should-monetary-policy-care-about-redistribution-optimal-monetary-and-fiscal-policy-with-heterogeneous-agents/

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New paper by Ashraf, Bakhtin, Field, Voena, & Ziparo:

https://www.restud.com/gendered-spheres-of-learning-and-household-decision-making-over-fertility/

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New paper by Christensen, Moon and Schorfheide:

https://restud.com/optimal-decision-rules-when-payoffs-are-partially-identified/
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New paper by Mahajan, Michel and Tarozzi:

https://www.restud.com/identification-of-time-inconsistent-models-the-case-of-insecticide-treated-nets/

#REStud
#EconX
#EconTwitter

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