Accepted Papers

A More Credible Approach to Parallel Trends

5 January 2023

Ashesh Rambachan and Jonathan Roth

This paper proposes tools for robust inference in difference-in-differences and event- study designs where the parallel trends assumption may be violated.

Bond Premium Cyclicality and Liquidity Traps

4 January 2023

Nicolas Caramp and Sanjay R. Singh

Safe asset shortages can expose an economy to liquidity traps. The nature of these traps is determined by the cyclicality of the bond premium. A counter-cyclical bond premium opens the possibility of expectations-driven liquidity traps in which small issuances of government debt crowd out private debt and reduce output.

Testing the Production Approach to Markup Estimation

4 January 2023

Devesh Raval

Under the production approach to markup estimation, any flexible input should recover the markup. I test this implication using manufacturing datasets from Chile, Colombia, India, Indonesia, the US, and Southern Europe, as well as store-level data from a major US retailer, and overwhelmingly reject that markups estimated using labor and materials have the same distribution.

A Welfare Analysis of Occupational Licensing in U.S. States

21 December 2022

Morris M. Kleiner and Evan J. Soltas

We assess the welfare consequences of occupational licensing for workers and consumers. We estimate a model of labor market equilibrium in which licensing restricts labor supply but also affects labor demand via worker quality and selection.

A Network Solution to Robust Implementation: the Case of Identical but Unknown Distributions

19 December 2022

Mariann Ollár and Antonio Penta

We study robust mechanism design in environments in which agents commonly believe that others’ types are identically distributed, but we do not assume that the actual distribution is common knowledge, nor that it is known to the designer.

More than a Penny’s Worth: Left-Digit Bias and Firm Pricing

13 December 2022

Avner Strulov-Shlain, University of Chicago, Booth School of Business

Firms arguably price at 99-ending prices because of left-digit bias—the tendency of consumers to perceive a $4.99 as much lower than a $5.00. Analysis of retail scanner data on 3500 products sold by 25 US chains provides robust support for this explanation.

Unemployment Insurance in Macroeconomic Stabilization

12 December 2022

Rohan Kekre, Chicago Booth and NBER

I study unemployment insurance (UI) in general equilibrium with incomplete markets, search frictions, and nominal rigidities.

Stratification Trees for Adaptive Randomization in Randomized Controlled Trials

12 December 2022

Max Tabord-Meehan, University of Chicago

This paper proposes an adaptive randomization procedure for two-stage randomized controlled trials. The method uses data from a first-wave experiment in order to determine how to stratify in a second wave of the experiment, where the objective is to minimize the variance of an estimator for the average treatment effect (ATE).

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New paper by @kateorkin, Garlick, @mahreenmahmud, Sedlmayr, @jhaushofer, & Dercon

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How do firms set wages when they can legally wage discriminate? Evidence from minimum wage reform shows firms raise pay for unbound workers, reflecting pay equity considerations.

New paper by @giulia_giupponi & @s_machin_

https://www.restud.com/company-wage-policy-in-a-low-wage-labor-market/

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Across Europe, even public firms have concentrated ownership, with big cross-country variation. Equity frictions matter more than debt frictions for output and wealth inequality.

New paper by @Ale_M_Peter

https://www.restud.com/equity-frictions-and-firm-ownership/

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Services like software & R&D are reshaping production networks. Using a novel approach to measure sectoral prices, @nichiflu, Gorry & @C_vom_lehn show this shift can sustain economic growth.

https://www.restud.com/structural-change-in-production-networks-and-economic-growth/

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