Accepted Papers

Deadly Debt Crises: COVID-19 in Emerging Markets

21 May 2023

Cristina Arellano, Yan Bai, and Gabriel Mihalache

Emerging markets have experienced large human and economic costs from COVID- 19, and their tight fiscal space has limited the support extended to their citizens. We study the impact of an epidemic on economic and health outcomes by integrating epidemiological dynamics into a sovereign default model.

Vacancy Durations and Entry Wages: Evidence from Linked Vacancy-Employer-Employee Data

3 May 2023

Andreas I. Mueller, Damian Osterwalder, Josef Zweimüller, and Andreas Kettemann

This paper explores the relationship between the duration of a vacancy and the starting wage of a new job, using linked data on vacancies, the posting establishments and the workers eventually filling the vacancies.

Bilateral Trade Imbalances

1 May 2023

Alejandro Cuñat and Robert Zymek

If sectoral trade flows obey structural gravity, countries’ bilateral trade imbalances are the result of macro trade imbalances, “triangular trade”, or pairwise asymmetric trade barriers. Using data for 40 major economies and the Rest of the World, we show that large and pervasive asymmetries in trade barriers are required to account for most of the observed variation in bilateral imbalances.

Optimal Long-Term Health Insurance Contracts: Characterization, Computation, and Welfare Effects

1 May 2023

Soheil Ghili, Benjamin Handel, Igal Hendel, and Michael Whinston

Reclassification risk is a major concern in health insurance where contracts are typically one year in length but health shocks often persist for much longer. While most health systems with private insurers pair short-run contracts with substantial pricing regulations to reduce reclassification risk, long-term contracts with one-sided insurer commitment have significant potential to reduce reclassification risk without the negative side effects of price regulation, such as adverse selection.

Mortgage Design and Slow Recoveries. The Role of Recourse and Default.

1 May 2023

Pedro Gete and Franco Zecchetto

We show that mortgage recourse systems, by discouraging default, magnify the impact of nominal rigidities. They cause deeper and more persistent recessions. This mechanism can account for up to 31% of the recovery gap during the Great Recession between the U.S., mostly a non-recourse economy, and Spain, a recourse economy.

Demand and Welfare Analysis in Discrete Choice Models with Social Interactions

27 April 2023

Debopam Bhattacharya, Pascaline Dupas, and Shin Kanaya

Many real-life settings of individual choice involve social interactions, causing targeted policies to have spillover effects. This paper develops novel empirical tools for analyzing demand and welfare effects of policy interventions in binary choice settings with social interactions.

Income growth and the distributional effects of urban spatial sorting

19 April 2023

Victor Couture, Cécile Gaubert, Jessie Handbury, and Erik Hurst

We explore the impact of rising incomes at the top of the distribution on spatial sorting patterns within large U.S. cities. We develop and quantify a spatial model of a city with heterogeneous agents and non-homothetic preferences for neighborhoods with endogenous amenity quality.

Fair Matching under Constraints: Theory and Applications

17 April 2023

Yuichiro Kamada and Fuhito Kojima

This paper studies a general model of matching with constraints. Observing that a stable matching typically does not exist, we focus on feasible, individually rational, and fair matchings. We characterize such matchings by fixed points of a certain function.

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Deadly Debt Crises: COVID-19 in Emerging Markets

Vacancy Durations and Entry Wages: Evidence from Linked Vacancy-Employer-Employee Data

Bilateral Trade Imbalances

Optimal Long-Term Health Insurance Contracts: Characterization, Computation, and Welfare Effects

Mortgage Design and Slow Recoveries. The Role of Recourse and Default.

Demand and Welfare Analysis in Discrete Choice Models with Social Interactions

Income growth and the distributional effects of urban spatial sorting

Fair Matching under Constraints: Theory and Applications

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