Accepted Papers

Dynamic Opinion Aggregation: Long-Run Stability and Disagreement

3 July 2023

Simone Cerreia-Vioglio, Roberto Corrao, and Giacomo Lanzani

This paper proposes a model of non-Bayesian social learning in networks that accounts for heuristics and biases in opinion aggregation. The updating rules are represented by nonlinear opinion aggregators from which we extract two extreme networks capturing strong and weak links.

When Less is More: Experimental Evidence on Information Delivery During India’s Demonetization

2 July 2023

Abhijit Banerjee, Emily Breza, Arun Chandrasekhar, and Benjamin Golub

In disseminating information, policymakers face a choice between broadcasting to everyone and informing a small number of “seeds” who then spread the message. While broadcasting maximizes the initial reach of messages, we offer theoretical and experimental evidence that it need not be the best strategy.

How Responsive are Wages to Firm-Specific Changes in Labor Demand? Evidence from Idiosyncratic Export Demand Shocks

2 July 2023

Andrew Garin and Filipe Silvério

Do firms adjust wages in response to changes in their own demand level, or to changes in competitive pressure from rival employers? We study how exporters adjust wages in response to unexpected product demand shocks during the 2008–2009 Great Recession. Using rich data on Portuguese firms’ pre-recession export shipments, we measure firm-level shocks to export demand during the Recession.

Experimentation in Endogenous Organizations

22 June 2023

Germán Gieczewski and Svetlana Kosterina

We study policy experimentation in organizations with endogenous membership. An organization decides when to stop a policy experiment based on its results. As information arrives, agents update their beliefs, and enter or leave the organization based on their expected flow payoffs.

Changes in Social Network Structure in Response to Exposure to Formal Credit Markets

22 June 2023

Abhijit Banerjee, Emily Breza, Arun G. Chandrasekhar, Esther Duflo, Matthew O. Jackson, and Cynthia Kinnan

We show that the entry of formal financial institutions can have far-reaching and long-lasting impacts on informal lending and social networks more generally. We first study the introduction of microfinance in 75 villages in Karnataka, India, 43 of which were exposed to microfinance. Using difference-in-differences, we show that networks shrank more in exposed villages.

Memory and Markets

22 June 2023

Sergey Kovbasyuk and Giancarlo Spagnolo

In many environments, including credit and online markets, records about participants are collected, published, and erased after some time. We study the effects of erasing past records in a dynamic market where the quality of sellers follows a Markov process, and buyers leave feedback about sellers to an information intermediary.

Heterogeneous Paths of Industrialization

22 June 2023

Federico Huneeus and Richard Rogerson

Industrialization experiences differ substantially across countries. We use a benchmark model of structural change to shed light on the sources of this heterogeneity and, in particular, the phenomenon of premature deindustrialization.

The Darwinian Returns to Scale

4 June 2023

David Rezza Baqaee, Emmanuel Farhi, and Kunal Sangani

How does an increase in market size, say due to globalization, affect welfare? We study this question using a model with monopolistic competition, heterogeneous markups, and fixed costs. We characterize changes in welfare and decompose changes in allocative efficiency into three different effects.

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"Serfdom in early modern Russia wasn’t inevitable—it was driven by landholding soldiers on the southern frontier. To defend against nomads, the state tied peasants to land, cementing coercive labor."

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Cities surrounded by expensive farmland are denser and agricultural productivity growth has lowered urban density over time in France. Our multi-region structural change framework can explain it.

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🏠Transaction taxes don’t just cool housing—they reshape it. Same rate, different impact: investors buy more, households less. Result: lower ownership and welfare losses of 111% of tax revenue.

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Dynamic Opinion Aggregation: Long-Run Stability and Disagreement

When Less is More: Experimental Evidence on Information Delivery During India’s Demonetization

How Responsive are Wages to Firm-Specific Changes in Labor Demand? Evidence from Idiosyncratic Export Demand Shocks

Experimentation in Endogenous Organizations

Changes in Social Network Structure in Response to Exposure to Formal Credit Markets

Memory and Markets

Heterogeneous Paths of Industrialization

The Darwinian Returns to Scale

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