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How People Use Statistics

Pedro Bordalo, John Conlon, Nicola Gennaioli, Spencer Kwon, and Andrei Shleifer

For standard statistical problems, we provide new evidence documenting i) multi-modality and ii) instability in probability estimates, including from irrelevant changes in problem description. The evidence motivates a model in which, when solving a problem, people represent each hypothesis by attending to its salient features while neglecting other, potentially more relevant, ones. Only the statistics associated with salient features are used.

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The US, Economic News, and the Global Financial Cycle

Christoph E. Boehm and T. Niklas Kroner

We provide evidence for a causal link between the US economy and the global financial cycle. Using intraday data, we show that US macroeconomic news releases have large and significant effects on global risky asset prices. Stock price indexes of 27 countries, the VIX, and commodity prices all jump instantaneously upon news releases. The responses of stock indexes co-move across countries and are large—often comparable in size to the response of the S&P 500.

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How to sample and when to stop sampling: The generalized Wald problem and minimax policies

Karun Adusumilli

We study sequential experiments where sampling is costly and a decision-maker aims to determine the best treatment for full scale implementation by (1) adaptively allocating units between two possible treatments, and (2) stopping the experiment when the expected welfare (inclusive of sampling costs) from implementing the chosen treatment is maximized. Working under a continuous time limit, we characterize the optimal policies under the minimax regret criterion.

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Unemployment insurance reforms and labor market dynamics

Benjamin Hartung, Philip Jung, and Moritz Kuhn

A key question in labor market research is how the unemployment insurance system affects unemployment rates and labor market dynamics. We provide new answers to this old question by studying one of the largest unemployment insurance reforms in recent decades, the German Hartz reforms. On average, lower separation rates into unemployment account for 76% of declining unemployment after the reform, a fact unexplained by existing research focusing on job-finding rates.

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‘Bad’ Oil, ‘Worse’ Oil and Carbon Misallocation

Renaud Coulomb, Fanny Henriet, and Léo Reitzmann

Not all barrels of oil are created equal: their extraction varies in both private cost and carbon intensity. Leveraging a comprehensive micro-dataset on world oil fields, alongside detailed estimates of carbon intensities and private extraction costs, this study quantifies the additional emissions and costs from having extracted the ’wrong’ deposits. We do so by comparing historical deposit-level supplies to counterfactuals that factor in pollution costs, while keeping annual global consumption unchanged.

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Identification and Inference in First-Price Auctions with Risk Averse Bidders and Selective Entry

Xiaohong Chen, Matthew Gentry, Tong Li, and Jingfeng Lu

We study identification and inference in first-price auctions with risk averse bidders and selective entry, building on a flexible framework we call the Affiliated Signal with Risk Aversion (AS-RA) model. Assuming exogenous variation in either the number of potential bidders (N) or a continuous instrument (z) shifting opportunity costs of entry, we provide a sharp characterization of the nonparametric restrictions implied by equilibrium bidding. This characterization implies that risk neutrality is nonparametrically testable.

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The official account of the Review of Economic Studies, one of the world's top economics journals.

RevEconStudies

In their paper, recently accepted to #REStud, Milgrom & Watt @MitchLWatt introduce “Walrasian markup mechanisms”—feasible, nearly efficient, and nearly incentive compatible mechanisms for nonconvex markets using linear prices.

https://www.restud.com/a-walrasian-mechanism-with-markups-for-nonconvex-markets/

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In their paper, recently accepted to #REStud, Frakes @MichaelFrakes2 and Gruber find a reduction in racial health disparities among chronic-disease patients following an increase in the racial diversity of the surrounding medical providers.

https://www.restud.com/the-effect-of-provider-diversity-on-racial-health-disparities-evidence-from-the-military/

#econtwitter

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"State schools aimed to secularize Indonesia, but religious schools adapted, competing for students and strengthening Islamic identity instead."

Recently accepted to #REStud, from @samuelbazzi, Hilmy and @benjaminmarx:

https://www.restud.com/religion-education-and-the-state/

#EconTwitter

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Recently accepted to #REStud, "Homeownership, Polarization, and Inequality," from Andrii Parkhomenko:

https://www.restud.com/homeownership-polarization-and-inequality/

#EconTwitter

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