NewFinancial Intermediation and Aggregate Demand: A Sufficient Statistics Approach 21 April 2026 Yu-Ting Chiang and Piotr ZochWe show that the financial sector’s asset supply elasticities are sufficient statistics summarizing its macroeconomic effects for a large class of financial frictions. These elasticities are crucial for a wide range of policy questions, ranging from the size of fiscal multipliers to the relative effectiveness of asset purchases targeting the financial sector versus tax cuts targeting households.
NewInput Sourcing under Climate Risk: Evidence from U.S. Manufacturing Firms 21 April 2026 Joaquin Blaum, Federico Esposito, and Sebastian HeiseWe study the effect of risk on how firms organize their supply chains. We use transaction-level data on U.S. manufacturing imports to construct a novel measure of input sourcing risk based on the historical volatility of ocean shipping times. Our measure isolates the unexpected component of shipping times that is induced by weather conditions along more than 331,000 maritime routes.
REStud European Tour 2026 - Hosts and Tourists AnnouncedREStud European Tour 2026 – Hosts and Tourists Announced 16 April 2026 The 2026 REStud’s European Tour hosts and tourists have been announced.
NewWhen is TSLS Actually LATE? 15 April 2026 Christine Blandhol, John Bonney, Magne Mogstad, and Alexander TorgovitskyLinear instrumental variable estimators, such as two-stage least squares (TSLS), are commonly interpreted as estimating non-negatively weighted averages of causal effects, referred to as local average treatment effects (LATEs). We examine whether the LATE interpretation actually applies to the types of TSLS specifications that are used in practice. We show that if the specification includes covariates—which most empirical work does—then the LATE interpretation does not apply in general.
NewTesting Mechanisms 15 April 2026 Soonwoo Kwon and Jonathan RothEconomists are often interested in the mechanisms by which a treatment affects an outcome. We develop tests for the “sharp null of full mediation” that a treatment D affects an outcome Y only through a particular mechanism (or set of mechanisms) M. Our approach exploits connections between mediation analysis and the econometric literature on testing instrument validity.
NewPolitical Pressure on the Fed 15 April 2026 Thomas DrechselThis paper combines new data and a narrative approach to identify variation in political pressure on the Federal Reserve. From archival records, I build a data set of personal interactions between U.S. Presidents and Fed officials between 1933 and 2016. Since personal interactions do not necessarily reflect political pressure, I develop a narrative identification strategy based on President Nixon’s pressure on Fed Chair Burns. I exploit this narrative through restrictions on a structural vector autoregression that includes the President-Fed interaction data.
NewThe Confederate Diaspora 8 April 2026 Samuel Bazzi, Andreas Ferrara, Martin Fiszbein, Thomas Pearson, and Patrick A. TestaThis paper develops a new framework for understanding when and how migrants shape culture, applying it to the Confederate diaspora—a small migrant group that left a large cultural imprint. Southern Whites that migrated after the Civil War played a pivotal role in spreading Confederate symbols and racial norms across the United States by the early 20th century.
NewA model of multiple hypothesis testing 31 March 2026 Davide Viviano, Kaspar Wüthrich, and Paul NiehausMultiple hypothesis testing practices vary widely, without consensus on which are appropriate when. This paper provides an economic foundation for these practices designed to capture leading examples, such as regulatory approval on the basis of clinical trials. MHT adjustments are appropriate in our framework to the extent that research costs are invariant to the number of hypotheses.
