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Capital Regulation and Shadow Finance: A Quantitative Analysis

29 October 2023

Hyunju Lee, Sunyoung Lee, and Radoslaw Paluszynski

This paper studies the effects of higher bank capital requirements. Using new firm-lender matched credit data from South Korea, we document that Basel III coincided with a 25% decline in credit from regulated banks, and an increase of similar magnitude from nonbank (shadow) lenders.

Single-Crossing Differences in Convex Environments

22 October 2023

Navin Kartik, SangMok Lee, and Daniel Rappoport

An agent’s preferences depend on an ordered parameter or type. We characterize the set of utility functions with single-crossing differences (SCD) in convex environments. These include preferences over lotteries, both in expected utility and rank-dependent utility frameworks, and preferences over bundles of goods and over consumption streams.

Contingent Thinking and the Sure-Thing Principle: Revisiting Classic Anomalies in the Laboratory

22 October 2023

Ignacio Esponda and Emanuel Vespa

We present an experimental framework to study the extent to which failures of contingent thinking explain classic anomalies in a broad class of environments, including overbidding in auctions and the Ellsberg paradox. We study environments in which the subject’s choices affect payoffs only in some states, but not in others.

Multi-Dimensional Screening: Buyer-Optimal Learning and Informational Robustness

9 October 2023

Rahul Deb and Anne-Katrin Roesler

A monopolist seller of multiple goods screens a buyer whose type vector is initially unknown to both but drawn from a commonly known prior distribution. The seller chooses a mechanism to maximize her worst-case profits against all possible signals from which the buyer can learn about his values for the goods. We show that it is robustly optimal for the seller to bundle goods with identical demands (these are goods that can be permuted without changing the buyer’s prior type distribution).

Competition and Career Advancement

9 October 2023

Julian V. Johnsen, Hyejin Ku, and Kjell G. Salvanes

In standard promotion tournaments, contestants are ranked based on their output or productivity. We argue that workers’ career progression may also depend on their relative rankings in dimensions a priori unrelated to their job performance, such as visibility or in-person presence. Such implicit tournaments may rationalize a variety of seemingly counterproductive practices in the workplace, including long working hours, low uptake of statutory leave, and presenteeism.

Incorporating Diagnostic Expectations into the New Keynesian Framework

9 October 2023

Jean-Paul L'Huillier, Sanjay R. Singh, and Donghoon Yoo

Diagnostic expectations constitute a realistic behavioral model of inference. This paper shows that this approach to expectation formation can be productively integrated into the New Keynesian framework. Diagnostic expectations generate endogenous extrapolation in general equilibrium.

Unequal expenditure switching: Evidence from Switzerland

1 October 2023

Raphael Auer, Ariel Burstein, Sarah Lein, and Jonathan Vogel

What are the unequal effects of changes in consumer prices on the cost of living? In the context of changes in import prices (driven by, e.g., changes in trade costs or exchange rates), most analyses focus on variation across households in initial expenditure shares on imported goods.

Path dependency in physician decisions

24 September 2023

Lawrence Jin, Rui Tang, Han Ye, Junjian Yi, and Songfa Zhong

We examine path dependency in physician decisions in an emergency department setting, and find that physicians’ treatment decisions for the current and previous patients are positively correlated. We show that the positive autocorrelation is higher when the current patient is of greater medical uncertainty or more similar to the previous patient in terms of observed characteristics and when the physician is less experienced or more fatigued.

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