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How Responsive are Wages to Firm-Specific Changes in Labor Demand? Evidence from Idiosyncratic Export Demand Shocks

2 July 2023

Andrew Garin and Filipe Silvério

Do firms adjust wages in response to changes in their own demand level, or to changes in competitive pressure from rival employers? We study how exporters adjust wages in response to unexpected product demand shocks during the 2008–2009 Great Recession. Using rich data on Portuguese firms’ pre-recession export shipments, we measure firm-level shocks to export demand during the Recession.

Experimentation in Endogenous Organizations

22 June 2023

Germán Gieczewski and Svetlana Kosterina

We study policy experimentation in organizations with endogenous membership. An organization decides when to stop a policy experiment based on its results. As information arrives, agents update their beliefs, and enter or leave the organization based on their expected flow payoffs.

Changes in Social Network Structure in Response to Exposure to Formal Credit Markets

22 June 2023

Abhijit Banerjee, Emily Breza, Arun G. Chandrasekhar, Esther Duflo, Matthew O. Jackson, and Cynthia Kinnan

We show that the entry of formal financial institutions can have far-reaching and long-lasting impacts on informal lending and social networks more generally. We first study the introduction of microfinance in 75 villages in Karnataka, India, 43 of which were exposed to microfinance. Using difference-in-differences, we show that networks shrank more in exposed villages.

Memory and Markets

22 June 2023

Sergey Kovbasyuk and Giancarlo Spagnolo

In many environments, including credit and online markets, records about participants are collected, published, and erased after some time. We study the effects of erasing past records in a dynamic market where the quality of sellers follows a Markov process, and buyers leave feedback about sellers to an information intermediary.

Heterogeneous Paths of Industrialization

22 June 2023

Federico Huneeus and Richard Rogerson

Industrialization experiences differ substantially across countries. We use a benchmark model of structural change to shed light on the sources of this heterogeneity and, in particular, the phenomenon of premature deindustrialization.

The Darwinian Returns to Scale

4 June 2023

David Rezza Baqaee, Emmanuel Farhi, and Kunal Sangani

How does an increase in market size, say due to globalization, affect welfare? We study this question using a model with monopolistic competition, heterogeneous markups, and fixed costs. We characterize changes in welfare and decompose changes in allocative efficiency into three different effects.

Is the Social Safety Net a Long-Term Investment? Large-Scale Evidence from the Food Stamps Program

4 June 2023

Martha Bailey, Hilary Hoynes, Maya Rossin-Slater, and Reed Walker

We use novel, large-scale data on 17.5 million Americans to study how a policy-driven increase in economic resources affects children’s long-term outcomes. Using the 2000 Census and 2001-2013 American Community Survey linked to the Social Security Administration’s NUMIDENT, we leverage the county-level roll-out of the Food Stamps program between 1961 and 1975.

Resolving Failed Banks: Uncertainty, Multiple Bidding & Auction Design

4 June 2023

Jason Allen, Robert Clark, Brent Hickman, and Eric Richert

The FDIC resolves insolvent banks with scoring auctions. Although the structure of the scoring rule is known to bidders, they are uncertain about how the FDIC trades off different bid components. Scoring-rule uncertainty motivates bidders to submit multiple bids for the same failed bank.

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