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Inference Based on Time-Varying SVARs Identified with Sign Restrictions

Jonas E. Arias, Juan F. Rubio Ramírez, Minchul Shin, and Daniel F. Waggoner

We propose an approach for Bayesian inference in time-varying structural vector autoregressions (SVARs) identified with sign restrictions. The linchpin of our approach is a class of rotation-invariant time-varying SVARs in which the prior and posterior densities of any sequence of structural parameters belonging to the class are invariant to orthogonal transformations of the sequence.

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The Illiquidity of Water Markets

Javier D. Donna and José A. Espín-Sánchez

We investigate the efficiency of a market relative to a non-market institution—an auction relative to a quota—as allocation mechanisms in the presence of frictions. We use data from water markets in southeastern Spain and explore a specific change in the institutions to allocate water. On the one hand, frictions arose because poor farmers were liquidity constrained. On the other hand, farmers who were part of the wealthy elite were not liquidity constrained.

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Patent Term, Innovation, and the Role of Technology Disclosure Externalities

Fabio Bertolotti

I examine the impact of patent term on R&D and innovation in the presence of policy anticipation, common in real-world settings. Using a difference-in-difference design, I exploit quasi-experimental variation in U.S. patent term across technological fields due to the ratification of TRIPs agreements in 1995. Despite a general increase in average patent term, in most fields innovators faced a considerable probability of patent term reduction for future innovations.

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Selection in Surveys: Using Randomized Incentives to Detect and Account for Nonresponse Bias

Deniz Dutz, Ingrid Huitfeldt, Santiago Lacouture, Magne Mogstad, Alexander Torgovitsky, and Winnie van Dijk

We show how to use randomized participation incentives to test and account for nonresponse bias in surveys. We first use data from a survey about labor market conditions, linked to full-population administrative data, to provide evidence of large differences in labor market outcomes between survey participants and nonparticipants, differences which would not be observable to an analyst who only has access to the survey data.

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"We prove a CLT for strategic network formation with homophilous agents. This enables inference on statistics derived from a single large network. We discuss practical procedures."

New Paper by Leung & Moon:

https://www.restud.com/normal-approximation-in-large-network-models/

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"A new theory on how regional shocks affect aggregate welfare—applied to US highway network improvements—unpacking how and why it deviates from the Fogel/Hulten characterization."

New paper by @MiyauchiYuhei, @EricDonald, & Fukui:

https://www.restud.com/unpacking-aggregate-welfare-in-a-spatial-economy/

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New paper by Campos-Mercade, Goette, Graeber, Kellogg, and Sprenger:

https://www.restud.com/de-gustibus-and-disputes-about-reference-dependence/

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New paper by Le Grand, Martin-Baillon & Ragot:

https://www.restud.com/should-monetary-policy-care-about-redistribution-optimal-monetary-and-fiscal-policy-with-heterogeneous-agents/

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