Model Complexity, Expectations, and Asset Prices 4 July 2023 Pooya Molavi, Alireza Tahbaz-Salehi, and Andrea VedolinThis paper analyzes how limits to the complexity of statistical models used by market participants can shape asset prices. We consider an economy in which the stochastic process that governs the evolution of economic variables may not have a simple representation, and yet, agents are only capable of entertaining statistical models with a certain level of complexity.
How Exporters Grow 3 July 2023 Doireann Fitzgerald, Stefanie Haller, and Yaniv Yedid-LeviWe use customs data for Irish firms to show that in successful episodes of export market entry, there are statistically and economically significant post-entry dynamics of quantities, but not of markups. To match these moments, we structurally estimate a model where firms can invest in future customer base through two channels: by selling more today, and by spending on marketing and advertising.
Trust in Risk Sharing: A Double-Edged Sword 3 July 2023 Harold L. Cole, Dirk Krueger, George J. Mailath, and Yena ParkWe analyze efficient risk-sharing arrangements when the value from deviating is determined endogenously by another risk sharing arrangement. Coalitions form to insure against idiosyncratic income risk. Self-enforcing contracts for both the original coalition and any coalition formed (joined) after deviations rely on a belief in future cooperation which we term “trust”.
Dynamic Opinion Aggregation: Long-Run Stability and Disagreement 3 July 2023 Simone Cerreia-Vioglio, Roberto Corrao, and Giacomo LanzaniThis paper proposes a model of non-Bayesian social learning in networks that accounts for heuristics and biases in opinion aggregation. The updating rules are represented by nonlinear opinion aggregators from which we extract two extreme networks capturing strong and weak links.
Submission fee increase from 1 July 2023Submission fee increase from 1 July 2023 3 July 2023 Our submission fees increased on 1 July 2023
When Less is More: Experimental Evidence on Information Delivery During India’s Demonetization 2 July 2023 Abhijit Banerjee, Emily Breza, Arun Chandrasekhar, and Benjamin GolubIn disseminating information, policymakers face a choice between broadcasting to everyone and informing a small number of “seeds” who then spread the message. While broadcasting maximizes the initial reach of messages, we offer theoretical and experimental evidence that it need not be the best strategy.
How Responsive are Wages to Firm-Specific Changes in Labor Demand? Evidence from Idiosyncratic Export Demand Shocks 2 July 2023 Andrew Garin and Filipe SilvérioDo firms adjust wages in response to changes in their own demand level, or to changes in competitive pressure from rival employers? We study how exporters adjust wages in response to unexpected product demand shocks during the 2008–2009 Great Recession. Using rich data on Portuguese firms’ pre-recession export shipments, we measure firm-level shocks to export demand during the Recession.
Experimentation in Endogenous Organizations 22 June 2023 Germán Gieczewski and Svetlana KosterinaWe study policy experimentation in organizations with endogenous membership. An organization decides when to stop a policy experiment based on its results. As information arrives, agents update their beliefs, and enter or leave the organization based on their expected flow payoffs.
