Dynamic Opinion Aggregation: Long-Run Stability and Disagreement 3 July 2023 Simone Cerreia-Vioglio, Roberto Corrao, and Giacomo LanzaniThis paper proposes a model of non-Bayesian social learning in networks that accounts for heuristics and biases in opinion aggregation. The updating rules are represented by nonlinear opinion aggregators from which we extract two extreme networks capturing strong and weak links.
Submission fee increase from 1 July 2023Submission fee increase from 1 July 2023 3 July 2023 Our submission fees increased on 1 July 2023
When Less is More: Experimental Evidence on Information Delivery During India’s Demonetization 2 July 2023 Abhijit Banerjee, Emily Breza, Arun Chandrasekhar, and Benjamin GolubIn disseminating information, policymakers face a choice between broadcasting to everyone and informing a small number of “seeds” who then spread the message. While broadcasting maximizes the initial reach of messages, we offer theoretical and experimental evidence that it need not be the best strategy.
How Responsive are Wages to Firm-Specific Changes in Labor Demand? Evidence from Idiosyncratic Export Demand Shocks 2 July 2023 Andrew Garin and Filipe SilvérioDo firms adjust wages in response to changes in their own demand level, or to changes in competitive pressure from rival employers? We study how exporters adjust wages in response to unexpected product demand shocks during the 2008–2009 Great Recession. Using rich data on Portuguese firms’ pre-recession export shipments, we measure firm-level shocks to export demand during the Recession.
Experimentation in Endogenous Organizations 22 June 2023 Germán Gieczewski and Svetlana KosterinaWe study policy experimentation in organizations with endogenous membership. An organization decides when to stop a policy experiment based on its results. As information arrives, agents update their beliefs, and enter or leave the organization based on their expected flow payoffs.
Changes in Social Network Structure in Response to Exposure to Formal Credit Markets 22 June 2023 Abhijit Banerjee, Emily Breza, Arun G. Chandrasekhar, Esther Duflo, Matthew O. Jackson, and Cynthia KinnanWe show that the entry of formal financial institutions can have far-reaching and long-lasting impacts on informal lending and social networks more generally. We first study the introduction of microfinance in 75 villages in Karnataka, India, 43 of which were exposed to microfinance. Using difference-in-differences, we show that networks shrank more in exposed villages.
Memory and Markets 22 June 2023 Sergey Kovbasyuk and Giancarlo SpagnoloIn many environments, including credit and online markets, records about participants are collected, published, and erased after some time. We study the effects of erasing past records in a dynamic market where the quality of sellers follows a Markov process, and buyers leave feedback about sellers to an information intermediary.
Heterogeneous Paths of Industrialization 22 June 2023 Federico Huneeus and Richard RogersonIndustrialization experiences differ substantially across countries. We use a benchmark model of structural change to shed light on the sources of this heterogeneity and, in particular, the phenomenon of premature deindustrialization.
