Convicting Corrupt Officials: Evidence from Randomly Assigned Cases 12 June 2024 Sebastian AxbardCan the judiciary help root out government corruption? This paper exploits the random assignment of court cases to justices who exhibit varying degrees of strictness to examine how convicting corrupt officials affects local government outcomes in the Philippines. I document that convictions improve the management of local public finances and reduce associated corruption. An exploration of mechanisms suggests that legal deterrence effects contribute to these findings.
Stock Market Participation, Inequality, and Monetary Policy 11 June 2024 Davide Melcangi and Vincent SterkRecent literature has shown that the fraction of liquidity-constrained households in the population critically determines the mix of transmission channels of monetary policy. In this paper, we bring a different but important dimension of heterogeneity to the forefront: stock market participation. We show that the stock market participation rate not only shapes the mix of policy channels, but also heavily affects the aggregate responses.
‘You Will:’ A Macroeconomic Analysis of Digital Advertising 11 June 2024 Jeremy Greenwood, Yueyuan Ma, and Mehmet YorukogluAn information-based model is developed where traditional and digital advertising finance the provision of free media goods and affect price competition. Digital advertising is directed toward consumers while traditional advertising is undirected. The equilibrium is suboptimal. Media goods, if valued by the consumer, are under provided with both types of advertising.
Monetary Policy and Heterogeneity: An Analytical Framework 11 June 2024 Florin O. BilbiieTHANK is a tractable heterogeneous-agent New-Keynesian model that captures analytically core micro-heterogeneity channels of quantitative-HANK: cyclical inequality and risk; self-insurance, precautionary saving, and realistic intertemporal marginal propensities to consume. I use it to elucidate key transmission mechanisms and dynamic properties of HANK models. Countercyclical inequality yields aggregate-demand amplification and makes determinacy with Taylor rules more stringent; but solving the forward guidance puzzle requires procyclical inequality: a Catch-22.
Job Applications and Labor Market Flows 2 June 2024 Serdar Birinci, Kurt See, and Shu Lin WeeJob applications have risen over time, yet job-finding rates remain unchanged. Meanwhile, separations have declined. We argue that increased applications raise the probability of a good match rather than the probability of job-finding. Using a search model with multiple applications and costly information, we show that when applications increase, firms invest in identifying good matches, reducing separations.
Falling Interest Rates and Credit Reallocation: Lessons from General Equilibrium 2 June 2024 Vladimir Asriyan, Luc Laeven, Alberto Martin, Alejandro Van der Ghote, and Victoria VanascoWe show that in a canonical model with heterogeneous entrepreneurs, financial frictions, and an imperfectly elastic supply of capital, a fall in the interest rate has an ambiguous effect on aggregate economic activity. In partial equilibrium, a lower interest rate raises aggregate investment both by relaxing financial constraints and by prompting relatively less productive entrepreneurs to invest. In general equilibrium, however, this higher demand for capital raises its price and crowds out investment by more productive entrepreneurs.
What Good are Treatment Effects without Treatment? Mental Health and the Reluctance to Use Talk Therapy 27 May 2024 Christopher J. Cronin, Matthew P. Forsstrom, and Nicholas W. PapageorgeEvidence across disciplines suggests that talk therapy is more curative than antidepressants for mild-to-moderate depression and anxiety. Yet, few patients use it. We develop a dynamic choice model to analyze patient demand for the treatment of depression and anxiety. The model incorporates myriad potential impediments to therapy use along with links between mental health improvements and earnings. The estimated model reveals that mental health improvements are valuable, directly through utility and indirectly through earnings.
Should We Prevent Off-Label Drug Prescriptions? Empirical Evidence from France 27 May 2024 Tuba TuncelAfter a drug obtains marketing authorization, the usage depends on the regulation of off-label prescriptions for unapproved indications. We investigate the impact of off-label prescription regulation on physicians’ behavior, patients’ health, treatment costs, and pharmaceutical firms’ pricing with a structural demand and supply model. Exploiting rich panel data on physicians’ activities and office visits in France over nine years, we use a model of prescription choice and health outcomes with unobserved patient-level heterogeneity. We identify the demand for on-label and off-label drugs and the effect of prescription choice on health outcomes.
