Narratives about the Macroeconomy

Peter Andre, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE and Goethe University Frankfurt, CESifo, Ingar Haaland, NHH Norwegian School of Economics, CESifo, Christopher Roth, University of Cologne, NHH Norwegian School of Economics, and MPI for Research on Collective Goods Bonn, CESifo, Mirko Wiederholt, LMU Munich, CESifo, CEPR, and Johannes Wohlfart, University of Cologne, ECONtribute, CESifo, MPI for Research on Collective Goods Bonn, CESifo and CEBI

We study narratives about the macroeconomy—the stories people tell to explain macroeconomic phenomena—in the context of a historic surge in inflation. In our empirical analysis, we field surveys with more than 10,000 US households and 100 academic experts, measure economic narratives in open-ended questions, and represent them as Directed Acyclic Graphs. Households’ narratives are strongly heterogeneous, coarser than experts’ narratives, focus more on the supply than the demand side, and often feature politically charged explanations. Moreover, narratives shape how households form inflation expectations and interpret new information, which we demonstrate in a series of experiments. Informed by these findings, our theoretical analysis incorporates narratives into an otherwise conventional New Keynesian model and demonstrates their importance for aggregate outcomes through their effect on agents’ expectations.