Accepted Papers

Financial Cycles with Heterogeneous Intermediaries

29 March 2023

Nuno Coimbra and Hélène Rey

We develop a dynamic macroeconomic model with heterogeneous financial intermediaries and endogenous entry. Time-varying endogenous macroeconomic risk arises from the risk-shifting behaviour of the cross-section of financial intermediaries.

House Price Dynamics, Optimal LTV Limits and the Liquidity Trap

29 March 2023

Andrea Ferrero, Richard Harrison, and Benjamin Nelson

This paper studies the optimal design of a macro-prudential instrument, a loan-to-value (LTV) limit, and its implications for monetary policy in a model with nominal rigidities and financial frictions.

Using Disasters to Estimate the Impact of Uncertainty

20 March 2023

Scott R Baker, Nicholas Bloom, and Stephen Terry

Uncertainty rises in recessions and falls in booms. But what is the causal relationship? We construct cross-country panel data on stock market returns to proxy for first- and second-moment shocks and instrument these with natural disasters, terrorist attacks, and political shocks.

Price Discrimination in International Airline Markets

20 March 2023

Gaurab Aryal, Charles Murry, and Jonathan W. Williams

We develop a model of inter-temporal and intra-temporal price discrimination by monopoly airlines to study the ability of different discriminatory pricing mechanisms to increase efficiency and the associated distributional implications.

Energy Efficiency and Directed Technical Change: Implications for Climate Change Mitigation

16 March 2023

Gregory Casey

I develop a directed technical change model of economic growth and energy efficiency in order to study the impact of climate change mitigation policies on energy use.

How the Other Half Died: Immigration and Mortality in US Cities

6 March 2023

Philipp Ager, James J. Feigenbaum, Casper Worm Hansen, and Hui Ren Tan

Fears of immigrants as a threat to public health have a long and sordid history. At the turn of the 20th century, when immigrants made up one-third of the population in crowded American cities, contemporaries blamed high urban mortality rates on the newest arrivals.

Misspecified Moment Inequality Models: Inference and Diagnostics

27 February 2023

Donald Andrews and Soonwoo Kwon

This paper is concerned with possible model misspecification in moment inequality models. Two issues are addressed.

Monetary Policy and Birth Rates: The Effect of Mortgage Rate Pass-through on Fertility

27 February 2023

Fergus Cumming and Lisa Dettling

This paper examines whether monetary policy pass-through to mortgage interest rates affects household fertility decisions.

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Cities surrounded by expensive farmland are denser and agricultural productivity growth has lowered urban density over time in France. Our multi-region structural change framework can explain it.

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