Accepted Papers

The Review of Economic Studies is one of the most highly respected academic journals in the field of economics. It is known for publishing leading research in all areas of economics, from microeconomics to macroeconomics. The journal is published by the Oxford University Press.

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Migration and the Value of Social Networks

Joshua E. Blumenstock, Guanghua Chi, and Xu Tan

How do social networks influence the decision to migrate? Prior work suggests two distinct mechanisms that have historically been difficult to differentiate: as a conduit of information, and as a source of social and economic support. We disentangle these mechanisms using a massive ‘digital trace’ dataset that allows us to observe the migration decisions made by millions of individuals over several years, as well as the complete social network of each person in the months before and after migration.

Credit Allocation and Macroeconomic Fluctuations

Karsten Müller and Emil Verner

We study the relationship between credit expansions, macroeconomic fluctuations, and financial crises using a novel database on the sectoral distribution of private credit for 117 countries since 1940. We document that, during credit booms, credit flows disproportionately to the non-tradable sector. Credit expansions to the non-tradable sector, in turn, systematically predict subsequent growth slowdowns and financial crises. In contrast, credit expansions to the tradable sector are associated with sustained output and productivity growth without a higher risk of a financial crisis.

A Model of Online Misinformation

Daron Acemoglu, Asuman Ozdaglar, and James Siderius

We present a model of online content sharing where agents sequentially observe an article and decide whether to share it with others. This content may or may not contain misinformation. Each agent starts with an ideological bias and gains utility from positive social media interactions but does not want to be called out for propagating misinformation. We characterize the (Bayesian-Nash) equilibria of this social media game and establish that it exhibits strategic complementarities.

Endogenous Uncertainty and Credit Crunches

Ludwig Straub and Robert Ulbricht

We develop a theory of endogenous uncertainty in which the ability of investors to learn about firm-level fundamentals is impaired during financial crises. At the same time, higher uncertainty reinforces financial distress. Through this two-way feedback loop, a temporary financial shock can cause a persistent reduction in risky lending, output, and employment that coincides with increased uncertainty, default rates, credit spreads and disagreement among forecasters.

Repayment Flexibility and Risk Taking: Experimental Evidence from Credit Contracts

Marianna Battaglia, Selim Gulesci, and Andreas Madestam

A widely held view is that small firms in developing countries are prevented from making profitable investments by lack of access to credit and insurance markets. One solution is to provide repayment flexibility in credit contracts. Repayment flexibility eases both the credit constraint, as it allows for increased spending during the startup phase, and offers insurance, in case of fluctuations in income.

Bargaining as a Struggle Between Competing Attempts at Commitment

Rohan Dutta

The strategic importance of commitment in bargaining is widely acknowledged. Yet disentangling its role from key features of canonical models, such as proposal power and reputational concerns, is difficult. This paper introduces a model of bargaining with strategic commitment at its core. Following Schelling (1956), commitment ability stems from the costly nature of concession and is endogenously determined by players’ demands.

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Our paper on Amazon deforestation is out! Grateful to everyone who helped along the way. I'd like to highlight one thing that made a huge difference: clear and thoughtful guidance from the editor.

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Using frailty as the measure of health, a new paper by @roozbeh52, @KopeckyEcon and Zhao, recently accepted to #REStud, finds that health inequality accounts for 28 percent of lifetime earnings inequality.

https://www.restud.com/how-important-is-health-inequality-for-lifetime-earnings-inequality/

#EconSky #health #frailty #disability

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"This study estimates the carbon-efficient forest cover in the Brazilian Amazon. A $10/ton carbon tax could preserve 95% of the efficient carbon stock, avoiding 42B tons of CO2 & yielding $1.6T in welfare gains."

New paper from @AraujoCRRafael, @_FranciscoCosta
& Sant'Anna:

👇

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Recently accepted to #REStud, "Barriers to Entry and Regional Economic Growth in China," from Brandt, Kambourov, and Storesletten:

https://www.restud.com/barriers-to-entry-and-regional-economic-growth-in-china/

#econtwitter #China #SOE

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